Double bottoms, head & shoulders and triple bottoms — how to spot the end of a move, and why the neckline close is the only thing that confirms it.
8 min read The Pattern Library
84%
Double bottom break-even rate
81%
Head & shoulders break-even rate
+46%
Triple bottom average rise
1,000+
H&S sample (Bulkowski)
// key takeaways
▸ Reversals mark the exhaustion of the prior trend, not just a pause.
▸ They only confirm on a close beyond the neckline — never anticipate.
▸ Measured target = pattern height projected from the breakout.
▸ Volume usually fades into the pattern and spikes on the break.
// figure: reversal patterns
figure.svg
Double bottom (W) — two equal lows, neckline break confirms.
What a reversal pattern is
A reversal pattern forms at the end of a trend and signals that control is changing hands. After an extended move, momentum fades, price carves out a recognisable structure, and a break of that structure's neckline confirms the new direction.
The three you must know
› Double bottom (W) — two troughs at a similar low; confirms on a close above the middle peak. ~84% break-even rate, ~39% average rise in Bulkowski's data.
› Head & shoulders — three peaks, the middle (head) highest; a bearish top that confirms on a neckline breakdown. ~81% break-even rate.
› Triple bottom — three failed tests of support; a firm base that confirms on a resistance break. Ranked highly among bullish reversals.
The trading playbook
› Entry — on the confirmed close beyond the neckline, or on the retest of the neckline as new support/resistance.
› Stop — beyond the last swing that would invalidate the pattern (below the second bottom, above the right shoulder).
› Target — measure the pattern height (neckline to extreme) and project it from the breakout point.
// common mistakes
✕ Buying the second bottom before the neckline breaks — that is a guess, not a pattern.
✕ Ignoring the higher-timeframe trend the reversal is fighting.
✕ Forgetting that a break on weak volume often fails and retests.
Frequently asked
See it live in the engine
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Educational content only — not financial advice. Pattern statistics reference Thomas Bulkowski (thepatternsite.com) and published technical-analysis literature.
