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Bull pennant pattern

A brief converging-triangle pause inside an uptrend after a sharp pole. Breaks up only ~57% of the time, so volume confirmation is essential.

7 min read Pattern Deep-Dives
~57%
Upward breakout rate
~54%
Break-even failure (up)
~+7%
Average rise
~86%
Volume decline in formation

// key takeaways

  • ▸ A steep flagpole up, then a small symmetrical (converging) pennant.
  • ▸ Breaks up only ~57% of the time — demand extra confirmation.
  • ▸ Volume declines during the pennant in ~86% of cases, then spikes on the break.
  • ▸ Target = flagpole height projected from the breakout.

// figure: bull pennant pattern

figure.svg
Bull pennant — steep pole, a tight converging pennant, breakout up.

How it forms

After a sharp rally (the pole), price consolidates in a small converging triangle as buyers and sellers briefly balance. Volume dries up as the pennant tightens. A breakout above the upper trendline — ideally on a volume surge — signals the trend is ready to resume.

The trading playbook

  • › Entry — on a close above the upper trendline with above-average volume, or on the retest of that line as support.
  • › Stop — below the pennant low, the lower trendline, or the flagpole midpoint.
  • › Target — measure the flagpole height and project it above the breakout point.

Why confirmation matters

Bulkowski's data is blunt about pennants: they break upward only about 57% of the time and carry a high break-even failure rate. Flags outperform pennants on nearly every metric, so treat a pennant as a lower-conviction setup and lean on volume and the higher-timeframe trend before committing.

// common mistakes

  • ✕ Trading a pennant with no preceding flagpole — that is just a small triangle.
  • ✕ Letting the pennant run more than ~15 candles or three weeks on daily — then it is a range.
  • ✕ Confusing a pennant (converging) with a flag (parallel).

Frequently asked

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// related lessons

Head & shoulders pattern

The most recognised reversal in trading: three peaks with a higher middle, a neckline, and a measured downside target. ~81% break-even rate on Bulkowski's data.

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Double bottom (W) pattern

Two failed attempts at the same low that flip a downtrend. The Eve & Eve variant ranks 5th of 39 bullish patterns; ~84% break-even, ~39% average rise.

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Bull flag pattern

A sharp rally, a tight orderly pullback, then continuation. The high-and-tight variant is elite; standard bull flags carry a ~44% break-even failure rate — so confirmation matters.

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Cup & handle pattern

A rounded base followed by a small pullback handle, then a breakout. Ranked 3rd of 39 bullish patterns by Bulkowski — averaging a 54% rise on 913 trades.

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Ascending triangle pattern

Flat resistance with rising support — buyers stepping up into a ceiling. ~83% break-even rate and a ~43% average rise; usually resolves to the upside.

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Double top (M) pattern

Two failed attempts at the same high that flip an uptrend. Ranked 19th of 36 bearish patterns; ~75% break-even rate and a ~15% average decline.

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Falling wedge pattern

Two down-sloping, converging trendlines that usually resolve upward. A bullish pattern where selling exhausts into the apex — confirm with a breakout on volume.

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Triple bottom pattern

Three failed tests of the same support that build a firm base. ~13% failure, ~46% average rise and a ~74% target-hit rate on 2,500+ Bulkowski trades.

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Educational content only — not financial advice. Pattern statistics reference Thomas Bulkowski (thepatternsite.com) and published technical-analysis literature.